"Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Toy Story 5 is opening domestically this weekend, and the first three-day box office figure will decide whether it lands in the market’s higher brackets or stays below the current crowd-implied 7% YES price. Variety reported tracking of roughly **$145 million to $150 million** for North America, with some analysts floating **$160 million to $175 million** if walk-up demand and family turnout hold up.[1]

That framing matters because Toy Story 4 opened to about **$120.9 million** domestically in 2019, so anything materially above that would be a franchise high-water mark and would justify a much tighter market than a typical family sequel. By contrast, the current 7% implies traders are still sceptical that the final three-day total will clear the top bracket, which often happens when opening weekend estimates run hot and then soften as actual audience counts come in.[1][5]

The main catalysts are the final preview and Friday-to-Sunday demand pattern, plus whether Disney keeps showtimes broad across premium large formats and family-friendly matinees. For payment-sensitive traders, this kind of event can deepen quickly when deposits are frictionless: fast top-ups via card alternatives, SEPA transfers, or USDC reduce the delay between a bullish estimate and order-book participation, while slower withdrawal rails can keep capital parked through the weekend and support book depth into the settlement window. Variety’s tracking update is the key recent signal to watch, because the market resolves on The Numbers’ final domestic three-day figure rather than studio estimates.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.