Claude Mythos released on…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic's release of a model formally named Claude Mythos would mark a significant product milestone for the San Francisco-based AI firm. The market settles on the date such a model becomes available to the general public, with any variant carrying "Mythos" in its official designation or described as "Mythos-class" by Anthropic qualifying for resolution. The settlement window closes at the end of June 2026, meaning traders are pricing the probability of this release occurring within an 18-month window from market inception.

Anthropic has maintained a deliberate naming convention for its Claude models—Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus—each representing distinct capability tiers released over the past two years. No public roadmap has indicated a shift to "Mythos" nomenclature, and the 0% crowd probability reflects the absence of any announced plans or credible leaks suggesting such a release. Comparable AI firms have occasionally rebranded or renamed product lines (OpenAI's shift from GPT-3.5 to GPT-4 involved marketing changes but not nomenclatural overhauls of this type), though Anthropic's track record shows consistency with its established naming structure.

Traders monitoring this market should track Anthropic's quarterly announcements, funding disclosures, and technical blog posts for any indication of new product naming conventions. Recent funding rounds and partnership announcements would also signal capacity for major product launches. Deposit friction on prediction platforms remains material—traders using SEPA transfers, Klarna, or USDC on-ramps should factor settlement timelines into position sizing, as liquidity depth on lower-probability markets often depends on sustained funding flow from retail participants.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.