Claude 5 released by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic releasing Claude 5 as a publicly accessible product before the end of 2025 remains a low-probability event according to current market pricing. The company has not announced a Claude 5 roadmap or timeline, and the settlement criteria require general public availability—not closed beta or waitlist-only access—making the bar materially higher than internal or limited rollouts. With the resolution window closing in early 2026, traders are pricing in a scenario where either Anthropic skips directly to a different versioning scheme, delays the release into 2026 or beyond, or maintains Claude 4 variants as its public-facing product through year-end.

Historical precedent suggests caution. OpenAI's GPT-4 took roughly two years from GPT-3.5's public launch before arriving in March 2023, and even then rolled out gradually through API and ChatGPT tiers rather than as an immediate universal release. Anthropic's Claude 3 family (Opus, Sonnet, Haiku) launched in March 2024 with staggered availability; the company has shown preference for phased rollouts and API-first strategies over simultaneous public drops. This pattern implies longer intervals between major version bumps than the market's current 0% probability might suggest, though it does not rule out an accelerated timeline.

Traders should monitor Anthropic's quarterly announcements and any public statements regarding Claude's development roadmap. Recent industry moves—including Anthropic's Series C funding round and partnerships with cloud providers—have focused on scaling existing Claude models rather than signalling imminent major releases. Deposit flows into prediction markets tracking AI timelines often correlate with earnings calls and conference presentations; watch for any Anthropic leadership commentary at major AI conferences through autumn 2025, as such statements typically precede or accompany product announcements.

Methodology

This page reviews Claude 5 released by…? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Deposit UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Deposit UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Deposit UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Deposit UK?

Zero. Polymarket Deposit UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.