In this guide
Key takeaway: Prediction markets enable you to trade on how real-world events will unfold. Purchase YES or NO contracts that are worth $1 upon correct prediction. This approach proves far less complex than equities trading, and entry costs can be as modest as $1.
Greetings to the world of prediction markets. Any time you have thought "that seems likely to occur" — you already possess the mindset of a prediction market participant. The key distinction lies in your ability to commit genuine capital to your beliefs and earn returns when your forecast proves accurate. Our introductory guide to prediction markets will have you executing trades within just five minutes.
How prediction markets work (the 60-second version)
Prediction markets transform future events into tradeable contracts. Consider these examples:
- "Will the Fed cut interest rates in June?" — YES contracts at $0.65, NO contracts at $0.35
- "Will Bitcoin close above $90K on December 31?" — YES contracts at $0.55, NO contracts at $0.45
- "Will France win the 2026 World Cup?" — YES contracts at $0.13, NO contracts at $0.87
Every contract delivers precisely $1 when the event occurs, or $0 when it does not. Market pricing embodies the collective probability assessment. Should you believe the market's assessment is inaccurate, you may trade — and profit when your judgment proves sound.
Step 1: Choose a platform
The two most prominent prediction market venues are:
- Polymarket — dominant in trading volume, blockchain-based (USDC via Polygon), accessible worldwide (US excluded)
- Kalshi — CFTC-regulated, dollar-denominated, restricted to US participants
PolyGram connects you to Polymarket's depth of liquidity through an intuitive platform — straightforward email registration, no cryptocurrency wallet required, and optimised for mobile devices. We suggest beginning your journey here.
Step 2: Fund your account
Funding your PolyGram account presents no complications. You may deposit using debit or credit cards, or transfer cryptocurrency directly. Begin modestly — between $10 and $50 suffices for initial trades. Topping up your balance remains simple whenever needed.
Step 3: Find a market you understand
The most frequent error among newcomers involves participating in markets outside their knowledge base. Select a domain you actively monitor:
- Interested in governance? Begin with electoral markets
- Interested in athletics? Participate in competition outcome trades
- Interested in digital assets? Speculate on price targets
- Interested in innovation? Forecast announcements and policy shifts
Step 4: Place your first trade
Visit PolyGram's markets page and locate a contract where you believe the pricing diverges from reality. Should the market price YES at 40% but you assess it at 60%, acquire YES contracts. Your gain if correct: $1.00 - $0.40 = $0.60 per contract (equating to a 150% gain).
Step 5: Manage your position
Once you own contracts, three paths lie before you:
- Hold until resolution: Remain invested through the event conclusion. Upon a correct forecast, contracts automatically settle at $1
- Sell early: Should the price shift favourably prior to settlement, you may exit for gains without awaiting the final outcome
- Cut your losses: When fresh facts alter your perspective, liquidate your position rather than gambling on recovery
Risk management for beginners
- Restrict any single contract purchase to no more than 5% of your account balance
- Prioritise established markets (substantial trading volume, narrow bid-ask gaps) — steer clear of obscure contracts with sparse participation
- Document your successes and failures to identify your trading patterns
- Keep in mind: contracts priced at 90% probability still fail roughly once every ten occurrences
Prepared to execute your opening prediction market transaction? Start trading on PolyGram →